Filling up hurts more than it did a year ago. Our latest research, using ABS Consumer Price Index data, shows fuel accounts for 87% of the extra price rise in September, when overall prices rose 0.8% for the month, almost twice the rise of a year earlier.
Households filling up now pay 23.6% more for fuel than a year ago, ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision on Tuesday 3 November.
Fuel prices rose 9.4% in September, according to ABS figures released on 28 October, which attributed the rise to higher world oil prices. Brent crude averaged US$114 a barrel in September, about 30% above the path the RBA assumed in its August forecasts.
Fuel prices and inflation in Australia
- Prices rose 0.8% in September, almost twice the rise in September 2025.
- September’s rise was 0.37 percentage points bigger than in September 2025, and fuel accounts for 0.32 of those points.
- Fuel prices rose 9.4% in September, which the ABS attributed to higher world oil prices.
- Households pay 23.6% more for fuel than in September 2025.
- Brent crude averaged US$114 a barrel in September, about 30% above the oil price path the RBA assumed in its August forecasts.
- Holiday travel added 0.44 points to the monthly rise, up from 0.28 a year earlier. Everything else combined added 0.04 points, down from 0.15.
Electricity, interest rates and the RBA
- Energy, which covers automotive fuel, electricity and gas, makes up about 7 cents in every dollar of the CPI basket but accounted for a quarter of annual inflation in September.
- Electricity prices were 12.8% higher than in September 2025, which the ABS largely attributed to Commonwealth energy rebates ending.
- The RBA has raised the cash rate four times this year, from 3.60% to 4.60%. The trimmed mean was 3.7% over the year to the September quarter, above the 2 to 3% target band.
What does this mean for Aussie households?
Dave Green, Co-Founder of Green.com.au, says “households are now carrying an oil shock that a rate rise won’t reduce, and a fifth rise on Tuesday would land on top of it. Families would be paying more at the pump and more on the mortgage at the same time. Oil is running well above what the RBA assumed, so the fuel bill isn’t going away soon."
"Households can put off a holiday, but they still have to drive to work and keep the lights on. Making more of their own power at home is the one lever that works whatever the cash rate does” Dave says.
You can’t do much about world oil prices or the cash rate. You can do something about how much energy you have to buy.
Electricity is 12.8% dearer than a year ago. Solar lets you make your own power during the day, and a home battery stores the extra for the evening, so you’re buying far less of it off the grid.
And since you still have to drive to work, the next step is getting off the pump too. Pair an EV with a home EV charger and charge it from your own solar and battery, and you’re filling up from the roof instead of the servo.
